Decadal forecast system-Current Affairs Capsule 12 Feb 2020

1) Decadal forecast system 

• The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) is planning a ‘decadal forecast’ system along the lines of the United Kingdom’s Met Office to ensure better predictability in the climate time scale, said Dr. M. Rajeevan, Secretary, MoES
• Speaking on the sidelines of the 6th International Conference on Climate Services being held at the Pune­-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)
• The system, based on a coupled climate model, would first be taking shape in the form of a research program and would be operational only after its merits had been evaluated.
• This is a new idea with more relevance to present climate forecasting needs. So, given the need for longer-­range prediction for 10 or 20 years, we will be starting a new program in the country using a coupled climate model by utilizing signals emanating from deep oceans to predict decadal climate changes
• The system would be explored as a research program to be taken up by IITM along with collaboration from the India Meteorological Department and other entities.
• The World Meteorological Organization has set up global producing centers, coordinated by the U.K. Met Office, for annual to decadal projections that are already providing global­-scale information
• Once the system was established, it would initially function for long­range forecasting at the national level and the model, if successful, would later be downscaled to the state or even district-level
• There were several gaps in the understanding of regional climate variability and its connections to global phenomena like Indian Ocean Dipole. Indian forecasters faced a challenge in maintaining the quality of climate observations, and there is a need on the part of researchers to develop applications for specific sectors based on the available climate forecast.

Source: The Hindu